Failing In So Many Ways

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Liang Nuren – Failing In So Many Ways

Eve Is Dying?

The perpetual thread is back on Eve-O tonight.  Eve Online is dying.  Its going to have to go Free To Play just to keep the doors open.  The hard nosed attitude vets have towards carebears is going to destroy the game.  The game only has 39,000 people online right now!  Oh noes!!

So I decided to do a little bit of digging [eve-online.com]:

According to these articles[1][2] your average SWTOR server can expect to have somewhere between 1400 and 2700 people. This includes both the shards and the “sharded zones” that have different people running on the same map. Thus, we could say (for example) that 39k people online is the equivalent of 14 and 27 servers. Split the difference and call it 21.

So lets assume that SWTOR is representative of all sharded MMOs and note that Rift has 16 US TZ servers and 18 EU TZ servers[3]. Noting that only one of those server sets really comes into play at a time, we can safely say that on average that Eve has ~15% more people playing than Rift does.

Now, one might argue that its terrible if Eve is merely as popular as Rift – afterall, Rift just went half free to play! However, the situations are quite distinct. Consider:
– Eve has long since been turning a profit, and is continuing to turn quite a pretty penny in profit. Enough to outright pay for the development of at least one extra game.
– Eve’s sub graph doesn’t look like Rift’s[4].
– Eve’s sub graph has a high correlation to its population graph. Consider the server metrics [5][6] as well.

Basically: while 39k seems like its “really low”… its actually not.

-Liang

[1] http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-01-03-swtor-has-350-000-peak-concurrent-users-report
[2] http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=240117
[3] http://www.riftstatus.com/
[4] http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-2.png
[5] http://wp.me/p1WQ0O-4i
[6] http://blog.beyondreality.se/Population-patches

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Filed under: Eve, Gaming, Rift, SWTOR, , , ,

2 Responses

  1. Seismic Stan says:

    I’ve not seen the latest thread (I’ll go look later), but with regard to the “hard-nosed attitude vets have toward carebears destroying the game” argument, I don’t think that’s true for a moment. The brutality is part of EVE’s charm.

    However, I do think the attitude of some of the more extreme ends the existing player-base is short-sighted. Whilst this is presently working to the benefit of EVE with regard to iterations, there is a “fuck you, it works for me” attitude which isn’t very progressive and would stifle EVE’s growth if given too much credence.

  2. I love threats like this xD. All the do is Q_Q and hope it happend eve is dying sinds the start off eve online. Is that your problem pal? no. Stfu and try to have a life.

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